Uranium Breaks $100: Why Small-Cap Nuclear Stocks Are Moving in Opposite Directions

Uranium prices surged past $100 per pound on the 29th of January for the first time in two years, marking a roughly 25% gain in January alone. The rally reflects tightening supply fundamentals and renewed investor attention to upstream nuclear fuel supply. As uranium mining stocks rallied sharply, small and mid-cap nuclear companies focused on exploration advanced drilling programs, enrichment companies faced stock volatility despite government backing, and reactor developers continued pre-revenue technology advancement with limited newsflow.

Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage of Energy Fuels (UUUU) with a buy rating and $30 price target on February 11, implying nearly 40% upside. The bank cited the company’s exposure to both uranium and rare earths, noting Energy Fuels operates the highest grade uranium deposit in the United States and the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the only domestic facility that can process light and heavy rare earths as well as uranium. Goldman analyst Brian Lee highlighted major structural shifts in both sectors due to US support for nuclear power and efforts to reduce dependence on China for rare earth processing.

Standard Uranium has commenced drilling at its Corvo Uranium Project near Wollaston Lake in northeastern Saskatchewan on February 11. Foremost Clean Energy (FMST) announced a 5,000-metre diamond drill program anticipated to commence mid-February at its Hatchet Lake Uranium Project, following up on drill hole TF-25-16 uranium discovery. NexGen Energy (NXE) participated in a Part 2 Commission Hearing on February 9 regarding its uranium development project, a regulatory milestone in advancing toward production.

Centrus Energy (LEU) exemplified the volatility facing nuclear fuel enrichment companies. Despite securing a $900 million Department of Energy task order in late January to expand its Piketon, Ohio facility, the stock has recently declined sharply, falling as much as 41% from its 52-week high while trading at 66 times projected 2026 earnings. However, the company remains the only Nuclear Regulatory Commission-licensed producer of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for both commercial and national security applications.

Senators Jim Risch and Ruben Gallego reintroduced the Accelerating Reliable Capacity (ARC) Act in the Senate on February 10, legislation designed to reduce early deployment risk for advanced reactors. According to the Department of Energy, it could take up to 10 deployments for a reactor design to become a mature commercial reactor. Getting from first-of-a-kind to full commercial deployment creates significant uncertainty for investors due to risks of higher costs and longer timelines.

Vice President J.D. Vance signed an agreement with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on February 9 for cooperation in the civil nuclear energy sector during his visit to Armenia. The Paris-based International Energy Agency released its annual Electricity 2026 report on February 6, showing nuclear energy output at record levels in 2025. The IEA projects nuclear energy together with renewable sources will generate about half of global electricity by 2030, up from 42 percent in 2025.

Industry consolidation continued with discussions of mergers among uranium producers. Energy Fuels announced plans to acquire rare earth metals producer Australian Strategic Materials in a share deal valued at $299 million, though this fell outside the target period. Denison Mines (DNN) continued advancing its Phoenix project toward construction readiness following December announcements, with regulatory approvals anticipated in Q1 2026. Uranium Energy (UEC) showed 60% year-to-date gains by early 2026, reaching new all-time highs after climbing 2,000% over the past decade.

What to watch next week: Track uranium spot pricing to see whether the rally above $100 starts again after recent retracing, which will signal whether utilities begin contracting aggressively. Monitor whether Centrus provides operational updates that could stabilize its stock decline despite having $900 million in government backing. Watch for drilling results from Standard Uranium and Foremost Clean Energy as they execute winter programs, which could move these micro-cap names on high-grade intersections.